Pledges not enough to meet 2°C target

2nd September 2015


Related Topics

Related tags

  • Mitigation

Author

Caroline Jones

Emissions reduction pledges made ahead of the Paris summit will fail to keep global temperature rise below the 2ºC level scientists believe is necessary to avoid dangerous climate change, according to a study.

The research, which updates earlier estimates, assessed the intended national determined contributions (INDCs) that 46 countries had submitted to the UNFCCC by 20 July 2015.

These include China, the 28 EU member states, Japan, Mexico and the US, and account for 58% of global greenhouse-gas emissions. The researchers from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science found the pledges would lead to annual global emissions in 2030 of 56.9 to 59.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2eq).

Although this much less than the current business-as-usual pathway, on which emissions reach 68 billion tCO2eq by 2030, it is much higher than the 36 billion tCO2eq that UNEP has calculated would be consistent with a 50% to 66% chance of avoiding a rise in global average temperature of more than 2ºC above the pre-industrial level.

The pledges also fall well short of the target of 42 billion tCO2eq for a pathway that avoids the temperature limit by using technologies that create “negative emissions”, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.

The authors, Rodney Boyd, Joe Cranston Turner and Bob Ward, say countries need to find further credible ways over the next few months of achieving bigger emissions reductions, which they can include in their INDCs. They are also calling for any agreement at COP21 in Paris to include a mechanism to allow countries to review their efforts and to find ways of ramping up the ambition of their emissions reductions by 2030 and beyond.

Subscribe

Subscribe to IEMA's newsletters to receive timely articles, expert opinions, event announcements, and much more, directly in your inbox.


Transform articles

How much is too much?

While there is no silver bullet for tackling climate change and social injustice, there is one controversial solution: the abolition of the super-rich. Chris Seekings explains more

4th April 2024

Read more

One of the world’s most influential management thinkers, Andrew Winston sees many reasons for hope as pessimism looms large in sustainability. Huw Morris reports

4th April 2024

Read more

Alex Veitch from the British Chambers of Commerce and IEMA’s Ben Goodwin discuss with Chris Seekings how to unlock the potential of UK businesses

4th April 2024

Read more

Regulatory gaps between the EU and UK are beginning to appear, warns Neil Howe in this edition’s environmental legislation round-up

4th April 2024

Read more

Five of the latest books on the environment and sustainability

3rd April 2024

Read more

Ben Goodwin reflects on policy, practice and advocacy over the past year

2nd April 2024

Read more

In 2020, IEMA and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) jointly wrote and published A User Guide to Climate-Related Financial Disclosures. This has now been updated to include three key developments in the field.

2nd April 2024

Read more

Hello and welcome to another edition of Transform. I hope that you’ve had a good and productive few months so far.

28th March 2024

Read more

Media enquires

Looking for an expert to speak at an event or comment on an item in the news?

Find an expert

IEMA Cookie Notice

Clicking the ‘Accept all’ button means you are accepting analytics and third-party cookies. Our website uses necessary cookies which are required in order to make our website work. In addition to these, we use analytics and third-party cookies to optimise site functionality and give you the best possible experience. To control which cookies are set, click ‘Settings’. To learn more about cookies, how we use them on our website and how to change your cookie settings please view our cookie policy.

Manage cookie settings

Our use of cookies

You can learn more detailed information in our cookie policy.

Some cookies are essential, but non-essential cookies help us to improve the experience on our site by providing insights into how the site is being used. To maintain privacy management, this relies on cookie identifiers. Resetting or deleting your browser cookies will reset these preferences.

Essential cookies

These are cookies that are required for the operation of our website. They include, for example, cookies that enable you to log into secure areas of our website.

Analytics cookies

These cookies allow us to recognise and count the number of visitors to our website and to see how visitors move around our website when they are using it. This helps us to improve the way our website works.

Advertising cookies

These cookies allow us to tailor advertising to you based on your interests. If you do not accept these cookies, you will still see adverts, but these will be more generic.

Save and close