Global carbon emissions budget not on track

Very few of the G20 nations are on track to live within their carbon budgets for 2000-2050 according to a new report by economists and climate change specialists at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP(PwC). The report reviews G20 carbon intensity levels between 2000-2008 and the distance to go to 2050, underlining the case for an ambitious deal in Copenhagen. The report estimates a maximum global carbon budget for the period from 2000 to 2050 of just under 1,300 GtCO2, with national breakdowns for the G20 on an annual basis, to give the world a fair chance of limiting global temperature rises to no more than 2�C (relative to pre-industrial levels), without sacrificing long term economic growth. Against the levels implied by the estimates, global carbon emissions are already 10% off track, with even the EU currently 7% behind. At current rates of carbon intensity improvement, the world will already have exceeded its estimated global carbon budget for the first half of this century by 2034, 16 years ahead of schedule. Such a 'business as usual' scenario could result in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations exceeding 1000ppm CO2e by the end of the century with potentially disastrous implications for the climate system and the global economy. Using PwC's global long-term economic growth and energy consumption model, the study derives plausible annual carbon budgets and carbon intensity pathways for the global economy and the individual G20 economies between 2000 and 2050, consistent with a consensus view of a 2�C stabilisation scenario. The PwC analysis estimates a global energy-related carbon emissions budget to be under 1,300 GtCO2 for the period from 2000 to 2050, to have a fair chance of restricting global warming to 2C. John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, commented: "The PwC Low Carbon Achievement index highlights that, despite the widening consensus around the need to decarbonise, few countries are doing enough to live within our estimates of their carbon budgets. If the world stays on this track we will have used up the entire global carbon budget for the first half of this century by 2034, 16 years ahead of schedule. "Getting back on track to a low carbon economy requires early action by all the major economies and underlines the case for firm political direction to incentivise the investments in energy savings and low carbon technology that are needed. Setting challenging global carbon emission targets for 2020 and beyond, and taking further steps towards putting a global price on carbon, are key elements required from a deal in Copenhagen. Delays and inaction will just make it harder to avoid dangerous climate change."