The World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2009, the annual flagship publication of the IEA, warns that a continuation of current trends in energy use puts the world on track for a rise in temperature of up to 6�C and poses serious threats to global energy security. However, it also says there are grounds for optimism because there are cost-effective solutions to avoid severe climate change which at the same time enhance energy security. Although, as one of the consequences of the financial crisis, global energy use is set to fall this year, WEO-2009 projects that it will soon resume its upward trend if government policies don't change. In this Reference Scenario, demand increases by 40% between now and 2030, reaching 16.8 billion tonnes of oil equivalent. Projected global demand is lower than in last year's report, reflecting the impact of the economic crisis and of new government policies introduced over the past year. Fossil fuels continue to dominate the energy mix, accounting for more than three-quarters of incremental demand. Non-OECD countries account for over 90% of this increase, and China and India alone for over half. In addition to increasing susceptibility to energy price spikes, the Reference Scenario projects a persistently high level of spending on oil and gas imports which would represent a substantial financial burden on import-dependent consumers. China overtakes the US around 2025 to become the world's biggest spender on oil and gas imports. The energy poverty challenge also remains unresolved with 1.3 billion people still without electricity in 2030 from 1.5 billion today; though universal access could be achieved with investment of only $35 billion per year in 2008-2030.


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