Oxford study shows switch to renewables could save trillions

22nd September 2022


Switching to renewable energy could save the world at least £10.2trn compared to continuing current levels of fossil fuel use, according to a major study.

Empirically grounded technology forecasts and the energy transition, an analysis of energy costs over several decades by Oxford University researchers, says that a fast transition to clean energy would be cheaper than a slow transition or no transition at all, and branded the idea that going green is expensive as “just wrong”. Green technology costs have fallen significantly during the past decade and are likely to continue falling, it adds.

The researchers analysed thousands of transition cost scenarios produced by major energy models and data from 45 years of solar energy costs, 37 years of wind energy costs and 25 years of battery storage costs. They found that the real cost of solar energy dropped twice as fast as the models’ most ambitious projections, revealing that, during the past 20 years, previous models had badly overestimated the future costs of key clean energy technologies versus reality.

The study’s ‘fast transition’ scenario shows a realistic possible future for a fossil-free energy system by around 2050 that provides 55% more energy services globally than today. This would be realised by ramping up solar, wind, batteries, electric vehicles and clean fuels such as green hydrogen.

“Past models predicting high costs for transitioning to zero carbon energy have deterred companies from investing, and made governments nervous about setting policies that will accelerate the energy transition and cut reliance on fossil fuels, says Rupert Way, postdoctoral research at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. “But clean energy costs have fallen sharply over the last decade, much faster than those models expected.

“Scaling-up key green technologies will continue to drive their costs down, and the faster we go, the more we will save. Accelerating the transition to renewable energy is now the best bet, not just for the planet, but for energy costs too.”

The study shows that the costs for key storage technologies, such as batteries and hydrogen electrolysis, are also likely to fall dramatically. Meanwhile, the costs of nuclear have consistently increased during the past five decades, making it highly unlikely to be cost competitive as renewable and storage costs plunge.

“There is a pervasive misconception that switching to clean, green energy will be painful, costly and mean sacrifices for us all – but that’s just wrong,” says Professor Doyne Farmer, who led the team behind the study at the Institute for New Economic Thinking. “Renewable costs have been trending down for decades. They are already cheaper than fossil fuels in many situations, and our research shows they will become cheaper than fossil fuels across almost all applications in the years to come.

“If we accelerate the transition, they will become cheaper faster. Completely replacing fossil fuels with clean energy by 2050 will save us trillions.”

Image credit | iStock

Subscribe

Subscribe to IEMA's newsletters to receive timely articles, expert opinions, event announcements, and much more, directly in your inbox.


Transform articles

IEMA’s deputy CEO reflects on announcements and controversy at COP28

With the first week of COP28 drawing to a close, IEMA’s deputy CEO, Martin Baxter, reflects on some of the key announcements made so far, addresses the controversy surrounding the climate summit, and highlights what to look out for in the second week.

7th December 2023

Read more

Negotiations are well underway at COP28 in the UAE as countries look to agree the best ways to tackle climate change and environmental breakdown over the coming decades.

5th December 2023

Read more

Thousands of people have gathered in the UAE for this year’s COP28 climate summit, including IEMA CEO Sarah Mukherjee MBE, and deputy CEO, Martin Baxter.

1st December 2023

Read more

David Burrows on the stolen concept of a circular economy, and how reduction must be at the heart of product design

30th November 2023

Read more

Groundbreaking research warns that the models used by the finance sector to predict climate scenarios could easily sink our retirement pots… and the global economy. Huw Morris reports

30th November 2023

Read more

IEMA CEO Sarah Mukherjee MBE talks to food campaigner Henry Dimbleby MBE about improving the UK’s health, tackling poverty, shaping government policy and transforming agriculture

30th November 2023

Read more

Scott Hosking, environmental data scientist at the Alan Turing Institute and British Antarctic Survey, tells Chris Seekings how artificial intelligence is helping governments understand and predict the impacts of climate change

30th November 2023

Read more

Media enquires

Looking for an expert to speak at an event or comment on an item in the news?

Find an expert

IEMA Cookie Notice

Clicking the ‘Accept all’ button means you are accepting analytics and third-party cookies. Our website uses necessary cookies which are required in order to make our website work. In addition to these, we use analytics and third-party cookies to optimise site functionality and give you the best possible experience. To control which cookies are set, click ‘Settings’. To learn more about cookies, how we use them on our website and how to change your cookie settings please view our cookie policy.

Manage cookie settings

Our use of cookies

You can learn more detailed information in our cookie policy.

Some cookies are essential, but non-essential cookies help us to improve the experience on our site by providing insights into how the site is being used. To maintain privacy management, this relies on cookie identifiers. Resetting or deleting your browser cookies will reset these preferences.

Essential cookies

These are cookies that are required for the operation of our website. They include, for example, cookies that enable you to log into secure areas of our website.

Analytics cookies

These cookies allow us to recognise and count the number of visitors to our website and to see how visitors move around our website when they are using it. This helps us to improve the way our website works.

Advertising cookies

These cookies allow us to tailor advertising to you based on your interests. If you do not accept these cookies, you will still see adverts, but these will be more generic.

Save and close