Fossil fuels still rule in 2035

More than 80% of the world's energy will come from oil, gas and coal in 2035, according to the latest estimates from BP

In its fourth annual report examining trends in global energy consumption, the oil and gas giant calculates that energy use will increase by 41% over the next 20 years, increasing the amount of energy-related carbon emissions by 29%.

The forecast growth in demand for energy is less than previous BP predictions, however, and the firm concludes that better energy efficiency, particularly in developed economies, is helping to counteract the growth in demand from emerging economies such as China.

According to the report, energy consumption in OECD countries will increase just 5% up to 2030 and then begin to fall. Meanwhile, in non-OECD countries demand is predicted to be 69% higher than in 2012. BP also calculates that the increase in energy-related CO2 will be entirely from developing economies.

While the renewables sector is predicted to be the fastest-growing part of the energy industry up to 2035, it will account only for around 5–7% of global energy generation. Meanwhile, natural gas, oil and coal will each account for 27% of the market.

BP’s report came as the UN’s top climate change official warned investors not to put money into high-carbon assets. In a speech to financial leaders on climate risk, Christine Figueres, executive secretary of the UN convention on climate change, said: “The pensions, life assurances and nest eggs of billions of ordinary people depend on the long-term security and stability of investment funds. Climate change increasingly poses one of the biggest threats to those investments.

“Companies that act now to minimise exposure will be best positioned to lead and to profit in the coming low-carbon investment landscape.”