As the dust settles on the outcomes from COP29 in Baku, one thing is for sure…there’s a massive job to do and a huge amount of investment needed on an ongoing basis if global average temperature increases are to be kept to well below 2C compared to pre-industrial levels.
It’s not by accident that I’ve referred to “well below 2C” as it seems pretty much nailed on that limiting warming to 1.5C is not going to be achieved.
COP29 was variously billed as the “Finance COP”, an “Implementation COP” and an “Engagement COP”. In reality, it needed to be all of these.
Throughout the 2 weeks, it was finance that dominated the agenda.
The ‘commitment’ under the Paris agreement of US$100bn per year was claimed to be achieved at COP28…but the reality is that much of the finance was in the form of loans and did little to suggest that those most affected by climate change and those most responsible were on the same page.
Key issues being debated in the New Centralised Quantified Goal on Climate Finance – NCQG in COP parlance – related to: grant vs non-grant elements; provision of funds vs mobilisation of wider contributions; the contributor base (i.e. who pays); and the role of carbon markets (Article 6 mechanisms, including the voluntary carbon market).
The elephant in the room, how much was being committed by developed countries, was a constant source of friction. Developing countries and small island developing states, requested US$1.3trillion/yr from 2025 onwards, whereas the first number to appear late on Friday was reaching US$250bn/yr by 2035. After frantic negotiations behind the scenes, the $300bn/yr by 2035 was settled on.
The mitigation work programme sought to take a step forward on the core elements of the Global Stocktake agreed at COP28 in Dubai, including tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, as well as transitioning away from fossil fuels. Yet the first set of documents produced were a clear step backgrounds from last year, making no mention of fossil fuels and leading to the Azerbaijan presidency being berated in open plenary by a range of countries.
Behind the scenes, UAE sought to put pressure on petro-states led by Saudi Arabia to uphold the commitments agreed at COP28. In the end, no agreement was reached, and further consideration will be given at the Subsidiary Body meeting in June 2025.
From an IEMA perspective, our #GreenSkillsAtCOP campaign was at the heart of our activity.
Presenting on a wide range of platforms, including in a UNFCCC side event with the World Green Building Council and in the Deloitte Pavilion on Youth, Human Development and Education Day, provided an opportunity to advocate our message and build collaborations with other organisations. The outcomes of the Just Transition and Capacity Building work programme recognises the importance of education and skills development, including through upskilling and reskilling, which reflect the core aspect of our campaign.
So partial progress in some areas but stasis in others.
However, the real way to test the outcome of COP29 will be whether the next set of Nationally Determined Contributions (i.e. countries best efforts) will raise the level of ambition in terms of emissions reduction and include economy-wide measures, including support for education, skills development and capacity building, as critical enablers of implementation. We’ll be evaluating those and reporting back ahead of COP30.
Speaking to COP29 delegates from around the world, it’s clear that there’s a step-change focus on delivery. The introduction of international disclosure rules (CSRD, ISSB) is starting to have the effect of driving climate action in the real economy around the world….as intended.
Meeting members from different parts of the world, hearing their experiences and sensing their passion to be part of the climate change solution, was incredibly encouraging. People will be at the heart of the transition, driving change at pace and scale, and IEMA members have a vital role to play.
Martin Baxter is Deputy CEO at the Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment (IEMA). He works in the UK and internationally to accelerate the transition to a sustainable future and support people in the development of sustainability skills and green careers. Martin has national and international experience in developing and negotiating global and European environmental management standards and developing capacity for effective and widespread implementation. Martin heads the UK delegation to the International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO) on environmental management and chairs the ISO environmental management systems committee of ~100 countries. He is also vice-chair of the European Standards CEN/CENELEC Strategic Advisory Body on the Environment. Martin is a Board member of IEMA, the Society for the Environment (SocEnv) and the Broadway Initiative.