In a “step back for humankind”, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions are set to rise after a three-year plateau.
Global carbon dioxide emissions from human activities are set to be 2% higher this year than in 2016, according to a new report from the Global Carbon Project (GCP).
The rise follows a three-year period of emissions staying relatively flat, with the increase largely a result of greater coal use and industrial production in China.
The researchers say it is too early to speculate whether this is the start of a new trend, warning that we need to reach a global peak in emissions before 2020 if we are to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.
“We must reverse this trend and start to accelerate toward a safe and prosperous world for all,” stated Future Earth executive director Amy Luers.
China’s emissions are projected to grow by 3.5% in 2017 after two years of decline. They account for approximately 28% of the 41 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions that are forecast worldwide this year.
India’s emissions are set to rise by 2%, although this is significantly less than the 6% per year averaged over the previous decade. The fall is thought be a result of government interventions in the economy.
Meanwhile, emissions in Europe and the US are predicted to decrease by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, but this is notably less than the 2.2% and 1.2% reductions averaged over the previous 10 years.
The remaining countries, which represent around 40% of the global total, are expected to see increases of around 2.3% in 2017, with emissions still rising in 101 nations with GDP growth.
Although the researchers say there are “several factors” pointing to a continued rise in 2018, long-term emissions are not expected to return to the persistent high growth rates seen during the 2000s of over 3% annually.
“This year we have seen how climate change can amplify the impacts of hurricanes, with stronger downpours of rain, higher sea levels and warmer ocean conditions favouring more powerful storms,” said lead researcher, professor Corinne Le Quéré.
“This is a window into the future. We need to reach a peak in global emissions in the next few years and drive emissions down rapidly afterwards to address climate change and limit its impacts.”
The researchers said their forecasts had an uncertainty range of between 0.8% and 3%.
Image credit: istock
